As with any new or emergent technology it can sometimes be difficult to navigate beyond the hype and evaluate the real market value and impact. This is particularly true for quantum computing where we are essentially looking at a deep tech offering that has been catapulted to a multi-billion-dollar industry in a relatively short space of time. Although in general, quantum computing continues to draw significant investment, the industry is based on niche and unique technologies that are often mired by sensationalism, making it difficult to evaluate the current state of the field.
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Recently there has been a lot of discussion around the real-life applications of quantum computing and company valuation based on use cases. Evaluating use cases is of course essential when determining the readiness and potential impact of a technology, but should this the only metric of interest?
In this article we try to gauge how far from the quantum revolution we really are by taking a wholistic look at not only the immediate use cases being explored but also indirect indicators linked to technology adoption and the emergence of supporting industries.
Early adopters and real-life application.
It’s no secret that the current quantum systems are noisy and lack proper error correction protocols. However, these first wave technologies (dubbed the NISQ systems), are nonetheless showing a potential speedup for a few key computational tasks. This has led to early adoption strategies that don’t necessarily look at outright quantum supremacy but rather focus on slight advantages these systems offer over classical computers. The best example of this is in optimization problems, something that is ubiquitous and used across industries.
This application of quantum computing has drawn significant attention from the finance sector. For example, IBMs in house quantum-fintech program has already resulted in several applications including quantum risk analysis and performance modelling, this has helped them secure partnerships with leading financial institutions such as Barkley’s and J. P. Morgan Chase who are looking at harnessing an early quantum advantage. Multiverse computing another enterprise worth mentioning has been making a serious attempt at accessing both quantum annealer and gate-based technologies for a range of topics including stock market crash prediction, financial derivative pricing, and portfolio optimisation. They also neatly wrap these services up in form of a SDK offering tailored to their client’s needs. This year we have also seen the first direct application of quantum computing in a commercial bank thanks to Spanish based Caixa who have developed an in-house quantum risk algorithm they are applying to client data. A very bold move indicating not only how quantum computing is becoming more trusted but also the desire for quantum advantage amongst early adopters.
There are also a number of notable examples of use cases being explored in sectors beyond finance. In 2019 Volkswagen demonstrated the world’s first live use of quantum computing for optimizing traffic routing, this has resulted in a pilot project focused on traffic optimization currently being deployed in Lisbon.
The pharmaceutical industry has also started zoning on the potential of quantum computing, 2021 marks one of the most significant moves in this area with the announcement of Boehringer Ingelheim’s partnership with Google Quantum AI. This three-year project is focused on researching and implementing cutting-edge use cases for quantum computing in pharmaceutical R&D, specifically focusing on molecular dynamics simulations and drug design.
The uses cases mentioned above are by no means and exhaustive list, as more partnerships and applications are announced on a near weekly basis. What all these examples of early adoption have in common, is that they are trying to squeeze out the most of the NISQ era systems. This strategy looks at exploiting even small gains that current quantum systems can have over classical machines. As recently reported by Goldman sachs this strategy has significantly moved the timeline forward for expected quantum dominance, according to their report quantum computers are expected to be tackling the most complex problems of financial markets within the next five years.
In terms of adoption there seems to be a range of promising direction being explored, however much of this is within large corporation’s R&D capacity, typically developing in house proprietary knowledge. This is not always transparent and does make it difficult to know exactly how quickly this industry is maturing.
Emergence of supporting services
Alternative indicators that can shed light on how established the technology is becoming include the state of peripheral supporting industries. This is something that has generated a lot of traction over the past few years. Here supporting services are required for the running, maintenance and finally deployment and distribution of the quantum systems. Thanks to the novelty of the various quantum computers, there are a lot of commercial opportunities and room for innovation beyond the direct application.
A good example of this can be seen on the hardware side. Several of the commercially available quantum computers are based on superconducting circuits, these require extremely low temperatures to operate, something that is achieved with the use of a dilution refrigerator (Dls). There are currently only a handful of DL manufacturers in the world, Finnish company Blufors being one of the most popular. Although these Dl systems have before now been marketed mostly to universities and research institutes, the company has started directing its focus to the quantum computing industry. This is done through strategic partnerships and investments in R&D innovation tailored to this sector’s needs. For example, a recent partnership with danish company Q-Devil has been established to develop improved chip carriers for more stable temperature control, an offering likely to be valuable for the noisy qubits of today’s quantum systems. They have also recently established a partnership with Linde, a multinational chemical company, for providing solution for large scale quantum computing cooling infrastructure.
Another good example of a peripheral company starting to focus on providing solutions for the quantum computing industry is Zurich Instruments. The relatively young swiss company has over the past few years positioned itself as a lead provider of electronic measurement modules. Not only have they developed several innovative products that cater to a variety of applications including telecommunications, semiconductor testing and military, but they have also developed products specifically for quantum computer measurement and control. Through these initiatives they have secured several partnerships with quantum computer providers, including IBM.
Considering that IBM and other quantum hardware providers are looking at massively increasing the scale of the current systems within the next few years, supporting services around measurement and control are likely to become increasingly important and lucrative.
Quantum education, promotion, and accessibility.
One of the biggest obstacles in widespread quantum computing adoption is the lack of trained human operators. Thanks to the uniqueness of this technology an entire new skill set is required, meaning massive investment in training and education. Fortunately, this aspect of the industry has also made massive strides in a noticeably short time. In fact, quantum education is becoming so popular that a multitude of initiatives such as courses at tertiary education level, hackathons, summer schools, quantum hubs and the like are being conducted across the globe, essentially focused on training an entire generation of quantum programmers and engineers.
A good example of this is IBMs Qiskit summer school which has become one of the fields annual highlights with a turnout of around 4000 in last year alone. The growth is quantum education has truly been astronomical and largely attributed to the open-source and accessible nature of the field. Expanding human capacity at this rate has obvious implications for establishing quantum computing as a competitive and valued industry.
Although Quantum computing may be a relatively new technology and industry, in terms of secured investment, number of new and emergent players, increasing application and use cases being explored, the emergence of entirely new supporting industries catering to quantum providers and the strides being made in education and training, it’s becoming increasingly clear that quantum computing is here to stay.
Considering the momentum the industry has generated in just the last two to three years, the question of “when will the quantum revolution begin” is getting a bit easier to answer, because in many ways, it already has.